A recent survey carried out by Emerson College Polling/The Hill in Arizona illuminates the present political terrain in the state, specifically concerning the impending presidential election and U.S. Senate race.
In the presidential race, the survey reveals that 48% of respondents support former President Donald Trump, while 44% favor President Joe Biden. Among undecided voters, when asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s support increases to 52%, while Biden’s stands at 48%.
The poll highlights that Trump’s supporters are motivated by their stance on specific issues (33%) or personal affinity for Trump (30%). In comparison, a significant portion of Biden’s supporters (43%) are driven by their dislike for Trump.
Among independent voters, 45% support Trump, 41% support Biden, and 14% are undecided. However, when undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are factored in, Trump’s support rises to 53%, compared to Biden’s 47%. Most Arizona voters (58%) do not believe Biden deserves to be re-elected.
Regarding Trump’s eligibility for another presidential run, 51% of respondents believe he deserves another chance, while 49% disagree.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holds a slight lead over Republican Kari Lake, with 44% and 40% support, respectively. When undecided voters indicate their leanings, Gallego’s support increases to 51%.
Immigration emerges as the top issue for Arizona voters (32%), followed by the economy (22%) and housing affordability (11%). Notably, voters prioritizing immigration overwhelmingly support Lake (77% to 12%), while those prioritizing the economy favor Gallego (43% to 38%).
Regarding approval ratings, 36% of voters approve of Biden’s job performance as President, while 56% disapprove. Governor Katie Hobbs has a 38% approval rating, with 41% disapproving.
The survey, conducted from March 12-15, 2024, sampled 1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. Various demographic factors weighted data, and turnout modeling was based on U.S. Census parameters and voter registration data.
While the findings offer valuable perspectives on Arizona’s political environment, it’s crucial to analyze them within the margin of error of the poll and take into account the credibility intervals related to demographic groups.
The survey methodology utilized Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems, landlines, emails, and an online panel of voters for data collection.
