On January 26, 2025, Alexander Lukashenko’s re-election as Belarus’ president for a seventh consecutive term was confirmed, with electoral authorities reporting that he won 87% of the vote. Lukashenko, who has held power since 1994, has been a controversial figure, often labeled as “Europe’s last dictator.” The election result was widely dismissed by Western leaders as a farce, with many, such as Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, stating that the Belarusian people had no choice.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski sarcastically noted that only 87.6% of the electorate voted for Lukashenko, questioning if the rest of the population would fit into prisons. The lack of genuine political competition made the outcome predictable, and the absence of meaningful opposition ensured Lukashenko’s continued rule.
The Suppression of Opposition
Lukashenko’s re-election was facilitated by a series of measures designed to stifle political opposition. Key opposition figures, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, were either exiled or imprisoned, ensuring no significant challenge to his rule. In January 2024, Lukashenko amended the constitution to prevent individuals who had not lived in Belarus for at least 20 years from running for president, making Tsikhanouskaya ineligible.
She had fled the country to escape the same fate as her husband, Sergei Tsikhanouski, who was arrested in 2020 and sentenced to 18 years in prison. Tsikhanouskaya herself was sentenced in absentia to 15 years for treason and attempting to seize power, further cementing the lack of political freedom in Belarus.
Lukashenko Secures Seventh Term as Belarus’ Leader Amid Widespread Election CriticismDespite the oppressive political climate, some Belarusians continue to support Lukashenko. A Chatham House survey from late 2024 revealed that one-third of Belarusians supported Lukashenko, with many expressing satisfaction with the country’s direction. A significant portion of Lukashenko’s supporters, however, viewed his leadership as essential to keeping Belarus out of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
While the majority of the population remains neutral, there is growing skepticism about the election’s fairness, with a significant percentage of pro-democracy Belarusians acknowledging that the result was predetermined. The overwhelming lack of opposition and the suppression of dissent contributed to a skewed and undemocratic electoral process.
The Government-in-Exile and International Support
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya leads a government-in-exile based in Lithuania, where she heads a “united transitional cabinet.” This group is dedicated to promoting the transition from dictatorship to democracy in Belarus, with a particular focus on holding fair and free elections.
Supported by the United States and other international bodies, Tsikhanouskaya’s efforts aim to mobilize Belarusian society and maintain a dialogue with the Belarusian people, even if the challenges of being in exile make this difficult. The Belarusian opposition has received backing from global powers, but the lack of direct engagement within the country severely hampers their efforts.
Political repression remains rampant in Belarus, with many opposition figures imprisoned, including Sergei Tsikhanouski, Viktar Babaryka, and Ales Bialiatski, a human rights activist sentenced to ten years for his involvement in the 2020 protests. In a possible attempt to reset relations with the West, Lukashenko released 200 political prisoners in mid-2024, mirroring a similar move he made in 2015.
However, these releases have not been enough to overhaul his image, especially considering his continued alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite these efforts, Lukashenko’s close ties to Russia and his controversial actions, such as using Belarus as a launch pad for the invasion, leave little hope for significant Western rapprochement.
Armed Belarusian resistance groups, such as the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, have also mobilized in support of Ukraine, further challenging Lukashenko’s grip on power. With the next election set for 2030, it is clear that Lukashenko’s regime remains firmly entrenched, but growing international pressure and internal dissent signal an uncertain future for Belarus.