A recent study by The Lancet reveals a big change in population that might change how things are in the UK and other Western countries until 2100.
According to the research, declining birth rates are projected to compel these countries to increasingly depend on mass migration from Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, to maintain population levels and support economic growth, resulting in profound societal transformations.
The study, as outlined by The Times, indicates that birth rates have been in decline across major Western nations since 1950. It underscores that traditional approaches aimed at boosting birth rates, such as pro-natal policies, including free childcare, are unlikely to suffice in offsetting the declining trend, necessitating a reliance on immigration from regions with higher fertility rates, notably sub-Saharan Africa.
For instance, the UK is grappling with one of the lowest fertility rates in Western Europe, standing at the “replacement rate” of 1.49 children per woman in 2021. To sustain the current population levels without immigration, this figure would need to reach 2.1. However, sub-Saharan Africa remains a region where birth rates continue to rise, with over half of the global births projected to occur there by 2100.
Dr. Natalia Bhattacharjee, the lead researcher of the study, underscores the profound implications of these demographic shifts. She warns that dwindling populations in Western nations will intensify competition for migrants to support economic vitality. Bhattacharjee highlights the necessity for fundamental societal reorganization, driven by the imperative to sustain economic growth amidst declining populations.
While measures such as extended parental leave, free childcare, and financial incentives may marginally boost birth rates, the study suggests that most countries will still fall below replacement levels.
Consequently, reliance on open immigration emerges as a crucial strategy to sustain economic dynamism. Bhattacharjee emphasizes the invaluable demographic asset possessed by sub-Saharan African countries—a youthful population—that contrasts with the aging populations of many Western societies.
In essence, the findings underscore the imperative for Western nations to adapt to shifting demographic realities, envisioning a future where immigration from Africa plays a pivotal role in shaping social, economic, and geopolitical landscapes.
