The latest poll on the California U.S. Senate race reveals challenges for Republican candidate Steve Garvey in consolidating GOP support, potentially benefiting Democratic Rep.
Katie Porter’s quest for the crucial second-place spot. Conducted by USC, CSU Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona researchers, the poll shows Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leading with 25% of likely voters. The focus now turns to the battle for the second spot, with both Porter and Garvey securing 15% support each.
California’s top-two primary determines which candidates advance to the November general election. While Garvey had previously shown momentum in securing the second position, the recent survey suggests a potential stall, primarily due to 37% of undecided Republican voters.
The poll, conducted after Garvey’s debated performance, reveals he might be underperforming expectations.
Christian Grose, the lead pollster, highlighted Garvey’s stature and noted that his noncommittal stance on voting for former President Donald Trump again could have impacted his numbers.
The outcome may rely on GOP voter turnout and the candidates’ ability to reach undecided voters, including a significant portion of Latino and Asian voters.
Progressive Democrats’ choice between Barbara Lee and other candidates like Porter or Schiff could also influence the final outcome. Lee, considered the most outspoken progressive, might play a spoiler role as she fades backward.
The survey, conducted from Jan. 21-29 with 1,416 online respondents, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
The key question now is how the remaining undecided voters and progressive Democrats will shape the dynamics of the Senate race in the weeks leading up to the primary.