Ukrainian Drone Strikes Cause 380,000 Bpd Drop in Russia’s Refining Rates

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Drag Russia’s Refining Rates Down by 380,000 Bpd

This month, Russia’s oil refinery operations have experienced a significant decline, with rates plummeting by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to December levels. This downturn comes as a result of multiple refineries undergoing repairs following Ukrainian drone attacks.

According to a source familiar with industry data speaking to Bloomberg on Monday, Russian refinery rates dipped to 5.16 million bpd in the second week of February. This drop represents a substantial decrease from December averages, with Bloomberg’s calculations indicating a decline of nearly 380,000 bpd.

Throughout February, Russia’s refineries have been processing approximately 5.21 million bpd of crude, marking the lowest refinery run rates since early October 2023, as reported by Bloomberg.

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Drag Russia’s Refining Rates Down by 380,000 Bpd

Data from Reuters’ sources and calculations revealed a 4% decrease in Russia’s daily crude oil processing during the first half of February compared to January and an 8.6% decrease compared to the same period in February 2023.

The decline in refinery operations is attributed to the recent targeting and damage inflicted on Russian refineries and energy infrastructure by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Ukraine’s security services have been particularly active in striking Russian refineries, especially those located in southern Russia, intensifying their attacks since the beginning of the year. A Ukrainian source informed Reuters last month that the SBU security service continues to target facilities critical to the Russian economy and fuel supply for enemy troops.

These attacks have significantly hampered Russia’s ability to process crude oil, potentially leading to an increase in crude volumes shipped from Russia but causing a reduction in diesel and other product exports.

The diminished supply of middle distillates, including diesel, from Russia has tightened the global product market in recent weeks. This tightening compounds existing trade flow shifts as tankers avoid the Red Sea/Suez Canal route due to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.

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