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Analyzing Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s Poll Numbers Eight Months Before the Election

Credits: The Hill

As November’s election draws closer, Joe Biden and Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race, with voters showing greater concern about issues surrounding the incumbent president than his expected Republican challenger.

Recent polls reflect a closely contested battle, with Biden narrowly leading Trump in two of the last six serious surveys, while Trump holds the edge in three, with one poll indicating a tie, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

Interestingly, voter concerns seem to focus more on President Biden’s age as he seeks reelection at 81, rather than on the 77-year-old Trump, who is also vying for a second term.

Additionally, surveys suggest that voters believe Trump would handle the economy better if reelected, and his legal issues have not significantly impacted his White House aspirations.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden (Credits: WWMT)

Following Super Tuesday, Trump is expected to solidify his 2024 Republican presidential nomination, as polls indicate he will dominate all 16 races against Nikki Haley on March 5.

Meanwhile, Biden, who faced no serious challengers in the Democratic primary, is poised to secure the Democratic nomination despite polls suggesting voters may prefer an alternative candidate.

Both Biden’s and Trump’s campaign teams have been contacted via email for comment, although responses have yet to be received.

A recent Morning Consult survey of 6,334 registered voters on March 4 gave Biden a slight lead over Trump by one point (44 percent to 43 percent), marking the first time since early January that Biden has led in a Morning Consult poll.

The survey also revealed that 85 percent of Biden’s 2020 voters intend to support him again in 2024, the highest share since September 2023.

Similarly, an I&I/TIPP poll of 1,246 registered voters released on the same day showed Biden leading Trump by one point, with other candidates factored in, resulting in a tie at 38 percent.

A CBS News/YouGov poll unveiled on March 4 displayed Trump with a four-point lead over Biden (52 percent to 48 percent), with likely voters expressing greater confidence in Trump’s physical and cognitive health.

The poll also indicated that more respondents believed Trump’s policies would address illegal immigration and lower prices compared to Biden’s presidency.

A New York Times/Siena survey conducted between February 25 and 28 showed Trump leading Biden by five points among registered voters and four points among likely voters.

Interestingly, the survey revealed a decrease in the percentage of voters believing Trump had committed federal crimes, down from 58 percent in December to 53 percent.

Meanwhile, a Fox News poll conducted concurrently with the New York Times survey depicted Trump with 49 percent support against Biden’s 47 percent.

Daron Shaw, a Republican involved in conducting the poll, emphasized the need for Biden to bolster his support among key demographics like African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters. Lastly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on February 29 showed Biden and Trump tied at 38 percent among U.S. adults.

A majority of Democrats expressed reluctance to support a presidential candidate who does not back providing military aid to Israel amid the ongoing conflict with Hamas, indicating a potential impact on Biden’s reelection bid.

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