Matthew Goodwin: Slim Chances of Budget Boost Amid Political Uncertainty

Credits: The International Churchill Society/YouTube

The upcoming budget is critical for Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, and the Conservative Party. Recent polls show the party trailing far behind Labour, with just 22.6% of the national vote compared to Labour’s 45%.

If these numbers were reflected in the general election, the Conservatives would face a devastating defeat, with only 65 seats compared to Labour’s 500.

Such a result would not only hand Sir Keir Starmer and Labour a significant majority but also plunge the Conservative Party into a deep electoral and philosophical crisis.

With Labour expected to dominate in Scotland and reclaim all seats in the Red Wall, the Conservatives’ future electorate would become uncertain.

The party would need to rely more on socially liberal, southern, and one-nation Tories, while also facing the challenge of appealing to the culturally conservative, pro-Brexit, anti-immigration voters in non-London England.

Matthew Goodwin (Credits: Byline Times)

The Conservatives’ struggles are compounded by a perception of incompetence and failure to deliver. Polls indicate that only 17% of voters see the party as competent, while 51% view it as incompetent.

The government’s handling of the economy is particularly criticized, with 69% of voters believing it is being managed poorly. This perception extends to other critical issues, including the NHS, education, taxation, and the cost-of-living crisis.

The rise of the Reform party, which has attracted disenchanted 2019 Conservative voters, reflects this dissatisfaction. The Conservative Party’s leadership, including Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, also faces low approval ratings.

Despite holding an 80-seat majority, the party has failed to deliver on its promises, leading many voters to see it as untrustworthy and out-of-touch.

As the Chancellor prepares to announce his budget, the Conservatives are facing an uphill battle to regain voter trust and avoid a crushing defeat in the upcoming election.

While tax cuts, including a reduction in National Insurance, are expected to be part of the budget, they may not be enough to reverse the party’s fortunes.

Voters strongly believe that it is time for a change in Westminster, and the Conservatives will need a more substantial strategy to turn the tide in their favor.

I'm Richard Rosales, I cover political news and ongoing US elections.