The prospect of a general election coinciding with the local elections in England and Wales on May 2nd has been a topic of speculation for some time.
This dual election scenario has been seen as a way to optimize resources and potentially bolster voter turnout, which could be advantageous for the Conservatives both locally and nationally. The timing of the March Budget added fuel to these speculations.
However, Chancellor Rishi Sunak poured cold water on this idea during an ITV interview on Thursday night, unequivocally stating that a general election would not be held on May 2nd.
While other May dates have not been explicitly ruled out by the Tories, Politico suggests that the logistical challenges of holding two major polls in a single month make this scenario unlikely. Nonetheless, some within the Labour Party remain hopeful that Sunak could reconsider the May 2nd date.
Personally, I have engaged in some speculative wagers with my Tory colleagues regarding the likelihood of a spring election. They often remind me of the counter-argument: why call an election when the polls show a 20-point deficit? The rationale behind waiting longer is the hope that circumstances might change.
However, what if nothing changes or the situation worsens? The recent budget, with its unfunded tax cuts, failed to move the needle in the polls.
Another factor favoring a May election is the anticipated poor performance of the Conservatives in the local elections. Despite efforts to manage expectations, last year’s local elections surpassed the Conservatives’ worst-case scenario, and this year’s electoral cycle appears more favorable to Labour demographically.
Opting for an autumn election campaign following dismal local election results, amidst party infighting and leadership speculation, could be highly detrimental. Labour’s recent experiences serve as a cautionary tale, highlighting the challenges of winning elections amidst internal division.
While I still hold onto hope for a May general election, I acknowledge that this sentiment may be wishful thinking. Ultimately, the deadline for calling a May 2nd election is March 26th, and we will soon learn whether this scenario materializes.
