A recent survey by Emerson College Polling/The Hill sheds light on the upcoming race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in Arizona. It revealed a competitive contest between two leading candidates, Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly.
Among registered voters, 44 percent supported Ruben Gallego, while 40 percent favored Mark Kelly. However, approximately 16 percent of respondents remained undecided.
When factoring in undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate, Gallego maintained a slight lead with 51 percent compared to Kelly’s 49 percent. Given the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the race appears to be effectively tied.
The survey also highlighted preferences in the presidential race, showing former President Donald Trump ahead of President Biden with 48 percent support compared to Biden’s 44 percent. The remaining 8 percent of respondents were either undecided or favored another candidate.
Immigration emerged as the top concern for 32 percent of voters, followed by the economy at 22 percent and housing affordability at 11 percent. Other issues such as education, healthcare, abortion access, threats to democracy, and crime garnered less than 10 percent of voter attention.
Interestingly, among voters prioritizing immigration, Mark Kelly garnered more substantial support, with 77 percent favoring him than Gallego’s 12 percent.
However, when focusing on voters concerned about the economy, Gallego held a slight advantage, with 43 percent backing him versus 38 percent for Kelly. The survey also analyzed voter demographics, revealing that independent voters leaned toward Gallego by 42 percent to 38 percent.
Voters under 40 overwhelmingly supported Gallego at 44 percent, while those aged 40 to 59 favored Kelly. Support was evenly split among voters in their 60s, while those over 70 leaned slightly toward Gallego.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, conducted from March 12 to March 15, involved 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
