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Next Week’s Economic Highlights: What to Watch in Major Currencies

The Week Ahead: US Inflation, Private Sector PMIs, and the Bank of Japan in Focus

The upcoming week presents a slew of economic data and events across major currencies. In the United States, Q1 GDP and jobless claims figures on Thursday will attract investor attention, with GDP likely holding more sway unless there’s an unexpected spike in jobless claims.

Additionally, the Personal Income and Outlays Report and consumer sentiment numbers on Friday will be crucial amid waning expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts. Inflation data will particularly influence the Fed’s rate trajectory, with hotter-than-expected figures possibly altering expectations.

Turning to the Eurozone, consumer confidence figures on Monday and preliminary private sector PMI numbers on Tuesday will steer the EUR/USD pair. Services PMIs, accounting for a significant portion of the Eurozone economy, will carry more weight alongside sub-components like prices and employment.

Wednesday will see a focus on the Ifo Business Climate Index, potentially indicating an upward trend in the macroeconomic environment. Thursday brings attention to German GfK Consumer Climate numbers, offering insights into consumer spending trends amidst rising speculation of a June ECB interest rate cut.

Next Week's Economic Highlights: What to Watch in Major Currencies

Next Week’s Economic Highlights: What to Watch in Major Currencies (Credits: Finacial Times)

In the UK, Tuesday’s UK private sector PMIs will be pivotal for the Pound, particularly the Services PMI, reflecting over 70% of the UK economy. Alongside data, speeches from Bank of England officials, including Jonathan Haskel on Tuesday, will be monitored amid mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts.

Canada’s housing sector data on Monday and retail sales figures on Wednesday will impact the Loonie, potentially influencing consumer spending and inflation outlook. Meanwhile, Australian inflation numbers on Monday and producer prices on Friday will steer the Australian Dollar, which will have implications for RBA interest rate decisions.

For the Japanese Yen, preliminary private sector PMIs on Monday and Tokyo inflation figures on Friday will influence market sentiment, with softer-than-expected numbers possibly prolonging zero interest rate policies.

However, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision and press conference on Friday will be pivotal, providing guidance on future interest rate plans. Lastly, in China, the PBoC’s decision on one-year and five-year loan prime rates on Monday could spur demand for commodity currencies if there’s a surprise cut, affecting the Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar, and the Loonie.

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