With the 2024 presidential election just around the corner, the political landscape is taking shape. As of Wednesday, former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over President Joe Biden in national polls, with 41.2% to 40.5% support.
However, as we’ve learned from past elections, the Electoral College is the real battleground, and that’s where the story gets more complicated.
While Trump’s national lead might suggest a strong advantage, the state-level polling averages tell a different story. In the seven competitive states, Biden remains within striking distance of Trump, trailing by less than 2 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Biden’s Path to 270 Runs Through the Heartland
If Biden can carry these states, plus every other state and district he won by at least 6 points in 2020, he’ll reach the crucial 270 electoral votes. This path is feasible, but it requires Biden to gain 2 points in the polling averages of those three states, which is within the realm of possibility given the historical margin of error.
The state-level polls also reveal an interesting dynamic, with Biden’s best path to victory running through the traditional “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, rather than the Sun Belt states.
This may be due to Biden’s struggles with voters of color, as well as the historical Democratic lean of the northern states. However, Democrats should be aware that winning these states will require proactive improvement in the polls, and there’s no margin for error.
Additionally, the electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is crucial, and if Trump wins there, the Electoral College could be tied, leading to a scenario where the House of Representatives decides the presidency.
