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Conservatives’ Popularity Hits Record Low, Securing Only 20% of Vote Share

Credits: Will Jennings | Substack

Recent polling by Ipsos shows a significant drop in support for the Conservative Party, with only one in five people backing them, marking their lowest vote share ever recorded.

In contrast, Labour has seen an increase in popularity, now holding 47 percent of the vote share. However, both parties experienced a decline in support last month.

The Conservative Party’s seven-point drop is particularly notable, and Labour’s two-point decrease is also significant. Satisfaction ratings for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer have also fallen, with a majority of the public considering him “indecisive.”

Record of Vote Share (Credits: Will Jennings | Substack)

The Ipsos poll also found that 83 percent of people are dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the country, up five points from January.

Additionally, less than one in five are satisfied with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s performance, with a net rating of minus 54, his personal worst.

Sir Keir’s ratings fell slightly, with only 29 percent expressing satisfaction with his leadership of the Labour Party. Despite this, Labour was perceived as having the best policies for managing the economy, with a 31-point margin over the Tories. This marks a significant shift from October, when the parties were neck and neck on this issue.

Labour was also seen as having the best policies on taxes, employment, public spending, and public services overall.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, commented on the findings, stating that the historical comparisons look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.

He noted that the Conservative vote share is the lowest ever recorded in the Ipsos political monitor series, which started in the late ’70s.

Skinner highlighted the challenges the Conservatives face across multiple fronts, particularly in economic credibility and public services, where Labour currently holds the lead.

In January, Mr. Sunak indicated that he expected to call a general election in the second half of 2024. According to the law, the election must be held by January 28, 2025.

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